23 April 2007

In Fahrenheit would this be a twelve step programme?

Today's Guardian contains a handy little guide to what we can expect as the Earth heats up degree Celsius by degree Celsius entitled "Six steps to hell". The article is essentially a précis of Mark Lynas's book Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, now out in paperback apparently. Some lowlights -

One degree C:

Drought in the American grain belt - as bad as or worse than the Dustbowl years of the thirties

The snows of Kilimanjaro are gone

Alpine glaciers are melting with significant impact due to rock slides as the ice that holds the mountains together disappears

Coral reefs and plankton at serious risk - their extinction or significant reduction could turn the world's oceans into a desert

Two degrees C:

European suffering under extreme summers similar to the one a few years ago in which 30,000 people died

The Greenland ice sheet is disappearing or gone leading to a rise in sea level of somewhere between half a metre and seven metres.

Andean glaciers will shrink causing severe drought

Loss of snow pack in the Sierra Nevada will create significant problems for Los Angeles and may turn it back to desert

Global food supplies for humans will be dramatically reduced but survivable. Other species will not fair as well and bio-diversity will be severely effected.

Three degrees C

Increasingly large areas of the planet would be rendered uninhabitable by drought and/or heat

Large areas of southern Africa and Australia reduced to desert

The most powerful hurricanes and typhoons would become have an upper limit half a level beyond today's Category Five

Hundreds of millions of refugees will be driven from their homes and their countries by climatic conditions or rising sea levels

Europe and North America seeing a cycle of summer drought and winter flooding with serious impacts on agriculture

Four degrees C

Hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 locked up in permafrost, primarily in Siberia, are released into the atmosphere accelerating the greenhouse effects

The Arctic ice cap disappears and along with the last of the polar bear and other arctic species that rely on the ice

Europe will see the return of deserts to Italy, Spain, Greece and Turkey; glaciers in the Alps will be reduced to only the highest peaks. Southern England could see summer temperatures of 45C. (Note: I start to complain about the heat at around 25C!)

Five degrees C

Bad; very, very bad

Six degrees C

Trust me you won't want to be there

This is first time I think I've felt that my age is an advantage. I pity the kids though.

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