All hail the great leaders Bush and Blair who have driven a deal on climate change through the unwilling G8. We are saved!
Oh. Wait a second. I've just read through the announcement and well I doesn't actually commit anyone, especially the United States, to anything; either that or St. Tony who, earlier in the week, had said that Europe would "set the bar high" for any deal, has set the bar so high that I cannot even see it!
There will be a "substantial" reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It is rumoured to be "50%" but there is no statement of this nor any mention of what the baseline will be. The Kyoto agreement and subsequent discussions have focused on 1990 levels but Bush has always resisted that as levels have continued to rise. It is clear that Bush has also insisted that China and India have to be included knowing that cuts in their emissions will be much more damaging to their economies that similar cuts will be to America. Clever clogs that he is he hopes to use these emissions cuts to maintain US economic dominance.
The only way forward is to adopt a policy of contraction and convergence which will require the biggest per capita polluters; the US, Canada, Australia and Western Europe; to make the most draconian cuts and will allow emerging economies to have small increases with the ultimate goal of a reasonably fixed per capita allocation for everyone. This is unacceptable to Bush and many Americans because it will force them to make sacrifices in the lifestyle which they somehow believed they have "earned" and are entitled to.
Oh. Wait a second. I've just read through the announcement and well I doesn't actually commit anyone, especially the United States, to anything; either that or St. Tony who, earlier in the week, had said that Europe would "set the bar high" for any deal, has set the bar so high that I cannot even see it!
There will be a "substantial" reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It is rumoured to be "50%" but there is no statement of this nor any mention of what the baseline will be. The Kyoto agreement and subsequent discussions have focused on 1990 levels but Bush has always resisted that as levels have continued to rise. It is clear that Bush has also insisted that China and India have to be included knowing that cuts in their emissions will be much more damaging to their economies that similar cuts will be to America. Clever clogs that he is he hopes to use these emissions cuts to maintain US economic dominance.
The only way forward is to adopt a policy of contraction and convergence which will require the biggest per capita polluters; the US, Canada, Australia and Western Europe; to make the most draconian cuts and will allow emerging economies to have small increases with the ultimate goal of a reasonably fixed per capita allocation for everyone. This is unacceptable to Bush and many Americans because it will force them to make sacrifices in the lifestyle which they somehow believed they have "earned" and are entitled to.
1 comment:
To Yank-in-London
Good post.
We can position this in parliament's debate this year on the climate-bill.
Here is my email address: -
aubrey.meyer [at] btinternet.com
Please send me your postal address.
I would like to mail a copy of the DVD on Contraction and Convergence issued by the UK All-Party-Parlimentary-Group-On-Climate-Change.
Kind regards
Aubrey Meyer
GCI
A DVD commissioned by the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Climate Change presenting Contraction and Convergence has been distributed to all UK MPs and Peers. It is endorsed by numerous eminent spokespersons who are interviewed at length on the DVD.
Copies of the DVD can be obtained by written request to GCI aubrey.meyer [at] btinternet.com
Alternatively, as a large file [overnight download] interview material is retrievable at this link: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Contraction_and_Convergence_Challen_et_al.mpg
The DVD also includes a heuristic animation of Contraction and Convergence for a risk analysis of different rates of sink-failure endorsed by prominent industry persons. This is a large file [overnight download] and is retrievable at this link:
http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Contraction_and_Convergence_Risk_Analysis_Sink_Failure.mpg
A context animation the arguments, presented at the Royal Institute of British Architects [RIBA] international conference in Venice last October, is here: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Final_presentation.exe or
http://www.gci.org.uk/images/CandC_model_context_animation.swf
[Note: - touch buttons to advances *within* scenes and touch logos to advance *between* scenes].
GCI’s definition statement for C&C is here: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf
General referencing for the C&C provenance is here: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/links/detail.pdf
Some promotional material is here: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/Movies/Contraction_and_Convergence_Promo.mpg
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