25 October 2006

Blair's poison chalice

Tony Blair's initial popularity was certainly a significant factor in the rise and success of New Labour. It now appears that his strategic mistakes, largely in tying the strings of his pinafore to George Bush's suspenders, may mean the end of New Labour dominance and death to the political ambitions of Gordon Brown. Labour support is now at its lowest level since the last time Maggie won an election. Labour weighs in at just 29% in the latest Guardian / ICM poll (down three points) succession to Tony Blair. The Conservatives now have a 10 point lead with 39% and the Lib Dems are lurking at 22%. It is almost impossible to tell how this translates into a parliamentary system where there is no proportional representation and where a simple plurality, rather than a majority, is all that is required to win a seat in Parliament.

It doesn't look good however and it is hard to see what Gordon Brown, dour Scot that he is, would be able to do to unstitch this once they drag Tony screaming and from number 10.

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