06 October 2006

Single issue voters

The Republicans have, for quite a long time, had a stranglehold on what I call "one issue voters". These are members of the electorate for which one issue generally outweighs all other considerations when making a determination of who they will vote for. There are a handful of issues that hold some portion of the voting public in this kind of thrall:
  • Opposition to abortion
  • Gun ownership / opposition to gun control
  • "Traditional marriage" / suppression of gay rights
This GOP dominance of a material portion of the electoral base has made it difficult for Democrats and progressives to make headway, especially in non-urban areas. The Democrats do not have, and are not likely to ever have, such dominance on specific "red button" issues. In light of this how do those in opposition to Republicans make progress? There are, I think, two ways. This base becomes disgruntled about lack of progress on their core issue and their tendency to turnout to vote is reduced or other issues (Iraq, corruption) begin to intrude on their thinking and they make more complicated decisions when selecting a candidate. There are signs that this is starting to happen.

A decline in GOP base turnout would be helpful but the real return occurs when voters turnout AND change sides. This has a doubling effect on results. The war and GOP corruption (financial and moral) will probably be the biggest factors.

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